Wednesday, 17 February 2016

Kashmir: What Next?



By Sohail Parwaz
It was back in October 2003 when a young Palestinian girl, Hinadi, did not go to college, in the morning. However, in the evening, she left her home with a bag in her hand. After three hours, people heard about an explosion in an Israeli hotel in the town where more than a dozen Israelis, including some soldiers, were killed, nevertheless, next day Hinadi’s video revealed that she paid her life as a price for that action. Whenever I recollect Hinadi of Palestine, the names of Master Muhammad Afzal of Al-Mustafa Liberation Tigers, Nazir Ahmed Lone and many other Kashmiri mujahidin also who went towards the Indian torture cells on their feet but only few of them could reappear, crippled and without their limbs, come to my mind.

Pakistan that the freedom-lovers had kept alive in their dreams, sadly, we have not been able to take care of that Pakistan. A naive adolescent, Waqas, also dreamt of an independent Kashmir. Unfortunately no one knows who was this Waqas? What to talk of our youngsters, many of our elders do not know about him. In his early teens he was one of those who sacrificed their today for Pakistan’s tomorrow but not known to us anymore. You may like to know about Waqas? He was that spirited and motivated boy who raised the slogan “Pakistan Zindabad!’ when a lofty six was hit by some Pakistani player against an Indian pacer. He was apprehended right away. When he was being dragged away to some unknown destination, hundreds of people heard him cry, “Mother! Please save me. They will kill me”, but no one could do anything. Unfortunately, his corpse left by his helpless mother.

There is a book, Raiders in Kashmir, written by Major General (Retd) Akbar Khan, whose name I am sure, would be as ‘familiar’ to our young generation as Waqas’. In chapter seventeenth of this book, General Akbar has made some startling predictions. For example, about the UN’s role vis-à-vis the Kashmir issue, he writes, “Some months after the ceasefire I wrote a paper under the title, “What next in Kashmir”. The paper is in the Rawalpindi conspiracy case documents since General Akbar’s name was also involved in that case. The purpose of this paper was to show that since in the ceasefire agreement nothing existed to compel India to hold a plebiscite, it would, in fact, not do so and meanwhile delay and times would favour India, not us. The reason that was being advanced in the higher circles was that we needed time to increase our military strength before we could settle the problem of Kashmir. But it was clear to the simplest of minds that during that time India could strengthen herself many times more.
Following to the submission of this paper General Akbar had a detailed meeting with Liaquat Ali Khan, the then prime minister. Months passed and nothing happened. Not that the prime minister was not sincere to the cause, a number of intermediaries like the Inspector General police Qurban Ali Khan played a negative role, who stopped the scheme of local production of small weapons. About a year later, General Akbar wrote yet another paper under the title “Keep the pot boiling in Abdullah’s Kashmir” (This too is kept in the record), where he suggested that, “as we could no longer violate ceasefire in the presence of UN observers, the right course of action for us was to help the people of the occupied Kashmir to strengthen and accelerate their own internal freedom movement against the Indian occupation”. On this too, no action was taken and those in authority seemed satisfied merely repeating their requests to the UN in the matter.”
I do not know when Palestine and Kashmir would be unshackled since the most important thing for the success of such freedom movements lies in the unity of the nations. Here, the ruthless disruption of Muslim unity is the ill-fortune. The misfortune of the Kashmiris is that they are the flag bearers of a Muslim freedom movement so we should be rest assured that they will always be interrupted and ignored. Well, if they had even a faintest resemblance with the issue of the East Timor, an area with the Christian in majority, then the sole super power of the world would have ensured their freedom a long time back.
Few years back, in one of the talk shows of a channel, the Kashmir policy vis-à-vis the future government was also talked about. All the participants, except one, and the host were of the opinion that the freedom of Kashmir is very crucial for Pakistan’s existence. To support the point, the Quaid’s saying, “Kashmir is Pakistan’s jugular’s vein”, was quoted. The only odd man out in the talk show was one Pervez Hoodbhoy who is well-known for his bitterness and ‘different’ views. The idiot was of the view that Pakistan should take care of its internal affairs instead of carrying around the Kashmir freedom flag. He summed up his argument by saying, “… and that’s it”. The irony is that such a person is allowed to pollute the innocent minds of the future of Pakistan in the academia and yet we yell at the top of our voice that we support the Kashmiris.

It’s a hard fact that people are very well aware of the felonies for which they are being punished, whether they plead guilty or not, while the ill-fated majority does not comprehend the crimes for which they were served with rigorous life imprisonment. Unfortunately my brethren from the bleeding Chinars and the flaming valley belong to the latter category while a prosecuted inhuman criminal, an Indian spy Kashmir Singh who was released on ‘humanitarian grounds’ belonged to the former group.
I have just one simple question to ask that why the civilised nations of the world do not care for the bleeding wounds of the Valley. Why the champions of human rights, friends to the oppressed nations and intellectuals do not raise their voices that, “if just one person named Kashmir Singh could be set free, why couldn’t Kashmir the name of millions also be allowed to breathe freedom”?
Will someone clear the confusion?


Samjhotha Express Incident


By Tariq Rizwan
Samjhota incident that occurred on the night of 18 and 19 Feb 2007 is remembered as the most horrible one in the history of Indo Pakistan conspiracy game, started from partition days in 1947, when thousands of Hindus and Muslim were killed ruthlessly by the extremists. In 2007, the India Pakistan Samjhotha Express was bombed in which 88 passenger were burnt alive by the extremist Hindu group, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh; about 68 dead were Pakistanis. It was confessed by RSS leader Swami Aseemanand, who has been granted bail by the Indian Punjab and Haryana High Court.
Both the Indian and Pakistani governments condemned the attack, and officials on both sides speculated that the perpetrators intended to disrupt improving relations between the two nations, since the attack came just a day before Pakistani Foreign Minister Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri was to arrive in New Delhi to resume peace talks with Indian leaders. There have been a number of breaks in the investigation of the bombings. The notorious terrorist, Swami Aseem Anand, was not only involved in the attack on Samjhota Express but had also murdered 119 persons.
BJP is trying to protect Anand’s bail and supporting the terrorist. Recently, in his analysis in ‘Aaj Shahzeb Khanzada Kay Saath’, Shahzeb Khanzada said Aseem Anand was also involved in the blasts in Makkah Masjid, Hyderabad Deccan in 2007 where eleven people were killed.
Anand was also involved in the bomb blast at Dargah Ajmer Sharif in Rajhasthan in 2007. Three people lost their lives in the incident. Similarly, he was also responsible for attacks on Muslim community in Malay Gaon with explosives, where the explosions left 37 people dead. So extremely horrible are Aseem Anand’s crimes that a responsible newspaper of India determined him as “the ugliest face of terrorism”.
Anand remained a zealous activist of the RSS and main character in most of the anti-Muslim activities in India. He has admitted twice in December 2010 and January 2011 in the court that he was involved in Samjhota Express incident. Once he did so but the court had given him 48 hours and asked the investigators to keep away from him so that it could be determined that he was not accepting the responsibility under duress. Yet he did not change his confessional statement and reiterated his confession again. The BJP government of India is not taking any action against him.
Instead of taking action, the BJP government is distancing itself from the culprit. According to reports by Caravan Magazine, Aseemanand, has claimed that the Malegaon, Ajmer and Samjhauta Express attacks were sanctioned by the RSS top brass, including its chief Mohan Bhagwat. No prominent RSS leader has been named in the charge sheet of the National Investigating Agency so far. The RSS has contested the report asking how could Aseemanand be interviewed when he is in jail.
The writer is freelance journalist based in London


Tuesday, 16 February 2016

Kashmir day observed throughout Pakistan and AJK



ISLAMABAD: Kashmir Solidarity Day was observed on Friday throughout Pakistan and Azad Kashmir to draw attention of the world community towards the plight of Kashmiris and to support their right to self-determination in accordance with the UN Security Council resolutions.
Rallies, seminars and other functions were organised by different organisations and political parties to express solidarity with the people of Kashmir and human chains were formed at different entry points of AJK, including Mangla, Kohala, Dhalkot, Azad Pattan, Bhimbher, Holar and Brar Kot.
A one-minute silence was observed at 10am to pay homage to martyrs of Kashmir and special prayers were held at mosques for the success of liberation movement.
The main event of the day, which was a public holiday, was special joint session of the Kashmir Council and AJK Legislative Assembly which was addressed by Prime Minister Muhammad Nawaz Sharif.
Public meetings were also held in other districts and towns of Azad Kashmir like Mirpur, Bhimbher, Kotli, Rawalakot, Bagh, Haveeli, Palandri, Hattiyan, and Neelam Valley in support of Kashmiris’ struggle.
A large number of people led by PML-N MNA Chudhary Khadim Hussain along with former member Punjab Assembly Chudhary Nadeem Khadim gathered at the Mangla bridge to express solidarity with the people of India-held Kashmir.
Mr Hussain said: “The hearts of the people of Pakistan and Kashmir beat in unison.”
Pakistan would continue its moral, political and diplomatic support for the people of Jammu and Kashmir, he added.
Speakers called upon India to immediately stop human rights violations in held Kashmir and give the right of freedom to the people of Kashmiris according to the UN Charter.
A group of motorcyclists from Multan reached the Mangla bridge to join the human chain.
In Karachi, the directorate of human rights organised a walk to mark the day. The walk started from the Sindh Secretariat and concluded at Karachi Press Club.
The Sindh Workers Welfare Board also organised a programme to express solidarity with Kashmiri brethren.
In Attock, State Minister for Parliamentary Affairs Sheikh Aftab Ahmad, while addressing a function in Jinnah Hall, deplored that India continued to violate human rights in Kashmir and brutalise Kashmiris there.
He said Pakistan would never waver from its principled stance on Kashmir.
In Bahawalpur, processions were taken out by various organisations, including Anjuman-i-Tajran Bahawalpur.
A book exhibition was held at Central Library in which pamphlets and books on the topic of struggle for Kashmir freedom were put on display.


Kashmir Solidarity Day: Added Significance

By Khalid Iqbal

Kashmir Solidarity Day was first observed in 1990 on the call of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who was then opposition leader and chief minister of Punjab. Keeping in view the importance of the issue, the federal government headed by Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto declared February 5 as a public holiday. Thus the day, with bipartisan support, became a national event. With the passage of time it has evolved into a global event. The day is dedicated to show support and unity with the people of Indian-occupied Jammu & Kashmir (IoK), their ongoing freedom struggle, and to pay homage to the martyrs who lost their lives while fighting for Kashmir’s freedom from Indian misrule.

Keeping in view Indian Prime Minister Modi’s machinations to unilaterally alter the status of Indian occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IoK), the upcoming solidarity day on February 5, has become of special significance. Foreign Secretary of Pakistan has briefed the Ambassadors of the P-5 countries and the EU, based in Islamabad, on recent developments about Kashmir. Referring to the indigenous struggle of the Kashmiris, the Foreign Secretary reaffirmed Pakistan’s unflinching political, moral and diplomatic support to the Kashmiri people. He emphasized that resolution of the Kashmir dispute was pivotal for ensuring peace, security and stability in the region.
Numerous UNSC resolutions (around 20) on Kashmir are gathering dust despite the fact that each year UNGA reaffirms the continuation of the Kashmir dispute. Interestingly, it is not a territory focused dispute, it relates to humanitarians issue and can be easily resolved through democratic process of allowing the people of Jammu and Kashmir to exercise their choice through an impartial vote. Recently Scotland and the Catalans exercised this right. Earlier, people of East Timor and South Sudan were given this right.

Only viable option is to settle this humanitarian issue in accordance with the UNSC resolutions. Pending UN resolutions need to be implemented and for this an enabling environment should be provided by the UNSC—especially the P-5. Elections in IoK are not a substitute of the UN monitored plebiscite. These elections have never been conducted in a free and fair manner. There have been powerful and credible voices from within India, exposing the manipulative electoral process in IoK. Of these, latest one is a statement by a former Indian Army Chief and currently Minster of State for Foreign Affairs—VK Singh, highlighting the use of money during all elections in IoK. Apart from these farcical elections, India has been making desperate efforts to alter the ground situation through demographic changes and dilution of Article 370 of Indian Constitution that gives special status to IoK.

There are continuous human rights violations by the Indian forces in IoK. Human rights organizations like: United Nations Council on Human Rights, Asia Watch, Amnesty International, and even Indian HR organizations have continuously been raising voices about the way Kashmiris are being treated by Indian security outfits.

India’s massive acquisition of weapons further complicates regional strategic stability; adding to India’s unilateralist attitude towards the Kashmir dispute. India’s defence spending has been upped by 12 percent for the current fiscal year; it stands at US$ 38.35 billion against Pakistan’s spending of under US$ 7 billion. Strategic concessions doled out to India by President Obama during his recent visit have further stiffened Indian attitude towards Pakistan in general and IHK in particular.
In a recent statement, Advisor to PM on National Security and Foreign Affairs Sartaj Aziz said that Obama’s new found love for rejuvenating Indo-US nuclear deal (Agreement 123) for political and economic expediencies would have a detrimental impact on deterrence stability in South Asia. Sartaj Aziz further said that proposals to add new centers of privileges in the Security Council run contrary to the collective objectives of Security Council reforms and have no rationale. Pakistan supports a reformed Security Council that corresponds to the positions and collective interests of all member states and not just a few, he added.
It is in this context that Pakistan has briefed the influential envoys about Kashmir. This refocus was long overdue. The Foreign Secretary has restated the principled stance that Pakistan would continue to support the indigenous struggle of Kashmiris by extending “unflinching political, moral and diplomatic support to Kashmiri people.” Pakistan has been proposing a three pronged Strategic Restraint Regime to India comprising: conflict resolution, nuclear and missile restraint, and conventional balance. Pakistan firmly believes that confidence building, and arms reduction in the regional and sub-regional context is of paramount importance. However, enduring peace would only emerge if all disputed between India and Pakistan, especially Kashmir dispute, are resolved.

After the recent state elections, political stalemate prevails in IoK and the territory stands polarized on religious lines. Indian Army’s deceitful doctrine for Kashmir based on WHAM — Winning Hearts And Minds – has not worked because it is not viable under the prevalent circumstances. Despite having deployed over 600,000 troops enabled by numerous draconian laws, Indian army faces a ‘No War, No Peace,’ situation in IoK. Due to a very high troop to population and troop to land ration, IoK is rightly perceived as an open prison. It remains militarized to the point of one soldier stationed for every 17 civilians. Torture, extrajudicial executions and rape have been systematically used, as tools for repression, by the occupation forces.


At this moment of its heightened national hubris, India unrealistically expects Pakistan to relent on its principled stance on Kashmir. In this context Solidarity Day has attained special significance. The day should be celebrated with added fervor to convey a message to the people of IoK that Pakistan would continue to support them in their struggle for right of self-determination.

Monday, 15 February 2016

Saudi pressure



By Moeed Yusuf 
The writer is a foreign policy expert based in Washington, DC. That Pakistan has thus far managed to steer clear of the fires in the Middle East is no less than a miracle. The Pakistani government dodged the Saudi request for direct involvement in Yemen last year. But this pressure will sustain. The reason is simple: there is no other Muslim country that has deep links with key Arab regimes and can be coerced to lend an army actually worth its salt. Quite apart from the Saudi demand, Pakistan also risks being burnt if the principal beneficiaries of the chaos in the Middle East — the militant Islamic State group and its affiliates — extend their reach into South Asia proper. They are already operating in Afghanistan and beginning to do so in Pakistan.

This is hardly surprising: after all, they have old connections here from the time they were part of Al Qaeda; they espouse a sectarian agenda that appeals to Sunni extremist outfits in Pakistan; and any number of militant groups out of favour and under attack from the Pakistani state are in desperate need of a patron that Al Qaeda no longer is.
Pakistan must avoid getting sucked into this mess.
Pakistan must avoid getting sucked into this mess. The starting point for this has to be the recognition that Islamabad’s traditional pro-Arab policy has been overtaken by events.
Iran has made a diplomatic comeback. And since Iran isn’t a regime — it’s a real state with real institutions and a controlled but functioning democracy — it has a greater chance of cashing in on this opportunity to alter the balance of power in the region. Meanwhile, the Saudi-led coalition seems insistent on ignoring the single-most obvious lesson from the post-9/11 wars: use of kinetic force, especially in foreign territory, has not and cannot defeat the kind of non-state actors/dissidents fighting discredited, misgoverned Muslim states.
The present Saudi force-heavy strategy won’t deliver and as the House of Saud’s desperation grows, they’ll inevitably look to crank up the pressure on Pakistan. We’ve already seen hints of a ‘with us or against us’ ultimatum — mercifully so far only from an Emirati minister shooting from the hip.
But when this comes seriously and directly from the Saudis, we’d be stuck — for defying this block beyond a point entails grave costs. Foremost amongst these would be a possible move towards Pakistani diaspora repatriation that is virtually unaffordable given the economic burden it entails and the hardened religious interpretations the expats are likely to bring back with them.
But Arab desperation could also lead to more blatant coercion, most obviously, by stoking sectarian fires within Pakistan. Of course, obliging the Arabs could lead the Iranians to consider the same approach to force Pakistan to rethink such a move.
Pakistan’s only recourse is to play the middle. It should proactively mediate the conflict. Not just by making high-level visits to Tehran and Riyadh. I am imagining a permanent backchannel to identify a middle ground in Yemen that convinces the Arab world to drop their demand for mercenary Pakistani forces.
Meanwhile, the traditional Pakistani direct (physical protection) and indirect (political) support to Arab countries should continue, and perhaps be buttressed further as a reassuring tactic. Arab states beginning to face domestic terrorism will also increasingly need counterterrorism assistance. Pakistan has a wealth of experience to contribute here and should do so eagerly — again, without putting any of its own personnel on the ground.
To Iran, this rather ambivalent Pakistani position must be presented as being contingent on its assurance that the Saudi mainland will not be threatened under any circumstances. For crossing this line would be the surest way to panic Arab regimes and force them to read the riot act to Pakistan if it still remains non-committal.
As for IS, there is no room for complacency. But thankfully, the most critical state response here is already in play. At this stage, you’ve basically got to prevent the IS franchise from becoming a networked group. This requires preventive counterterrorism techniques coordinated between the civilians and the military. This is an area where the security apparatus seems to be doing better than any other.
That said, the one factor that could dent my cautious optimism is negative regional developments.
If the situation in Afghanistan goes further south and spills over into Pakistan or if the eastern border heats up, the state’s attention will be diverted. IS and its affiliates will find precisely the kind of space and time they need. Pakistan should be on the lookout for IS-inspired attempts to create circumstances that could lead a breakdown in Af-Pak or Pak-India relations.
Pakistan has survived the Middle Eastern storm so far. But things will continue to heat up in the Arab world. As they do, the demand for Pakistani presence there as well as the potential for IS to expand outside the Middle East will only increase.


US on Soviet Union’s Track of Disintegration



By Sajjad Shaukat

The former Soviet Union which had subjugated ethnic and religious communities in various provinces and regions through its military, disintegrated in 1991. Even, its nuclear weapons could not save its collapse. One of the major causes of the disintegration of the former Russian Empire was that its greater defence expenditures exceeded to the maximum, resulting in economic crises inside the country. In this regard, about a prolonged war in Afghanistan, the former President Gorbachev had declared it as the “bleeding wound.” While learning no lesson, in one way or the other, the US has been acting upon the similar policies which led to the demise of the Soviet Union.

Post-Napoleonic era in Europe proves that it is not possible to suppress the wars of liberation through military terrorism. In that context, Prince Metternich, emperor of the Austro-Hungarian Empire did what he could by subjugating the alien peoples by employing every possible techniques of state terrorism. According to Indian historian, Mahahin, Matternich had to admit that he was fighting for a useless cause, and the empire disintegrated, resulting in the independence of Italy, Bulgaria and other states whose secret societies had been waging wars of liberation. In the recent past, despite the employment of unlimited atrocities by the President Milosevic, collapse of the former Yugoslavia could not be stopped.

However, a recent report points out, approximately $1.7 trillion has been spent by the United States on the global war on terror from 2001 to start of 2016. These are supplemental funds that are in addition to the base budget for the Department of Defense. This different war further added to the $18 trillion US debt. It does not include the expenses incurred by other departments, such as the FBI or State Department, or the cost to run Homeland Security.

Various sources such as the Congressional Research Service and Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government (May 2015) state, “In the last 13 years, the United States has spent a total of $1.6 trillion  financing military operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, and other theaters of the global war on terror. The U.S. government’s massive spending sum includes the cost of military operations, the training of security forces in Afghanistan and Iraq, reconstruction, weapons maintenance, base support, foreign aid, embassy costs, and veterans’ health care...the decade-long wars in the Middle East would eventually cost American taxpayers as much as $6 trillion...training and equipment for Iraqi and Syrian opposition forces” will further increase the US cost of war...the true cost of the War on Terror also added to the lost jobs that could have been created with those funds. Every $1 billion spent on defense creates 8,555 jobs and adds $565 million to the economy...another major share of the long-term costs of the wars comes from paying off trillions of dollars in debt incurred as the U.S. government failed to include their cost in annual budgets and simultaneously implemented sweeping tax cuts for the rich.”

In fact, learning no lesson from the flawed policies of Bush, such as failure of the project of globalization, failure of power factor or force in coping with terrorists, more terror attacks by Al-Qaeda in various regions of the world and demoralization of the US troops in Afghanistan,  President Barack Obama continued state terrorism and extrajudicial killings of the innocent persons through illegitimate drone attacks—assisting undemocratic forces, the return of a military strongman in Egypt by toppling the elected government, and like Iraq, creation of more failed states such as Libya, Syria, Yemen etc. which opened the door for Al-Qaeda and ISIL activists. In these terms, after 14 years of the protracted war, a perennial wave of attacks on the US and NATO installations and ambush assaults on their military personnel by the Taliban in Afghanistan, terror-attacks on Christians in Nigeria and other African countries including Iraq—sectarian violence and some terror-attacks inside America, France and UK deteriorated the global war on terror. Thus, besides reduction of the US bargaining leverage on small countries like North Korea, Venezuela, Uzbekistan, Cuba etc. who have rejected American undue pressure on a number of issues and matters, and leakage of Transpacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA), (An agreement to suppress sovereign democratic rights in favour of multinational corporations), President Obama caused political and economic instability in the world, jeopardizing the American regional and global interests.

President Barack Obama campaigned on defense reduction, but his spending on war on terror since 2010 is $719.3 billion, as compare to President Bush's expenditure of $921.4 billion. Deficit spending intensified. It was more than $100 billion a year until 2012, and greater than $50 billion annually through 2016. Reducing deficit resulted into to conflict within Congress, and in 2013, tea party Republicans shut down the government. 

A study conducted by Brown University’s Watson Institute for International Studies have indicated America’s “wastage of billions of dollars on the reconstruction of Afghanistan, private contractors like Blackwater in Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan...linked to bribery, questionable contract awards, and outright theft...those costs have been hidden from public view.”

Besides, support to the rebels, Kurds, Al-Qaeda and ISIS (Islamic State group) terrorists in Iraq, Libya, Syria, Yemen and elsewhere in the world, including covert operations of the CIA worsened the US financial crisis.   

The Department of Defense has spent more than $2.7 billion—some $9 million per day—since the US began operations against the ISIS in 2013 which reached $14 million per day to combat ISIS in fiscal year 2015.

As the military campaign against the Islamic State expands into Syria, its cost will increase as well. According to one defense spending expert, “The United States’ war on the militant group could now be costing taxpayers up to $1.5 billion a month. The training and equipping the Kurdish ground forces and moderate militants of Syria and those in Saudi Arabia to topple Syrian President Bashar al-Assad will cost more than $ 5 billion.”

Some recent developments have clearly exposed the double game of the US-led West. The Russia-led coalition which have successfully been achieving its objectives have broken the backbone of the ISIS terrorists, Al-Qaeda’s Al-Nusra Front and the rebels who have vacated most of the areas of Syria and Iraq. On February 3, this year, Syrian troops backed by Russian warplanes cut the last supply route, linking rebels and ISIS militants in Aleppo city. Aleppo is near the Turkish border from where with the assistance of the US-led west (Especially, UK and France), Turkey has also been supporting the rebels and ISIS terrorists, while Saudi Arabia and some other Gulf countries like are funding them to oust Assad.
Meanwhile, rift has also been created between the US and its close NATO ally Turkey, when on February 10, 2016, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan lashed out at the US over its support for Syria’s main Kurdish group, saying, “The failure to recognise the Democratic Union Party (PYD) as a terrorist group is creating a “sea of blood” in Syria. He explained, “The PYD, on which the US relies to battle so-called Islamic State in Syria, is an offshoot of the banned Kurdistan Workers’ Party.”

Notably, by concealing their clandestine aims, the US and its European allies were blaming Russia to sabotage Geneva the talks on Syria. Meanwhile, big power agreed on February 12, this year at Munich to seek ceasefire and a nationwide “cessation of hostilities” in Syria. But, Turkey continues its massive shelling against Kurdish targets in northwest Syria. Now, Washington and Paris have called on Ankara to stop bombardment and vacate the Syrian air base recently retaken from Islamist rebels, pointing out that it will disrupt the Munich settlement. At the same time, with the covert backing of the US, Turkey and Saudi Arabia are planning to start a ground offensive in Syria. In other words, escalation of the conflict will further increase the cost of the US different war.  

Besides, in the post-Paris attacks of November 13, 2015 in wake of the anti-Muslim developments like the propaganda of the so-called threat of Islamophobia, persecution of the Muslims in the US, Europe and some other western countries, exaggeration of the threat of ISIS terrorists etc., America and its western allies (NATO) have united against Russia. Now, as part of their ambivalent approach, American jet fighters and those of its western coalition are targeting the ISIS terrorists in Iraq and Syria. However, coupled with the double game towards Al-Qaeda and ISIS, such an irresponsible approach of the US-led western politicians will expand the course of the different war—will invite more terror attacks in the US and Europe, giving a larger setback to the economy of their countries, and being the largest economy, the US which have already been facing fiscal crisis will be badly affected.

Taking cognisance of the grievances of the international community, and the sole superpower’s injustices, Russian President Vladimir Putin is rapidly restoring the balance of power in the world. In this context, a new cold war between America and Russia has started in the world. In this connection, Russia which also has China’s support, though Beijing does not openly show, is in better position than the US and its western (NATO) allies who are also entangled in Afghanistan and the Middle East. This cold war will enhance American expenditures by deepening the US momentary problems, while it is already been becoming difficult for the sole superpower to maintain its military bases abroad.   

It is noteworthy that on August 16, 2007, during the annual summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), their leaders displayed strength against the rising dominance of the US in the region, and called for a multi-polar system in the world. President Putin had even proposed defense cooperation among the member states. Participating in the Summit in 2015, Pakistan and Iran got permanent membership of the SCO which is seen as anti-American club.  

While, in case of Afghanistan, there are several groups of Al-Qaeda, ISIS and Taliban like the Afghan-based Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Some of them are being used by secret agencies like CIA, Israeli Mossad and Indian RAW to obtain the collective and individual designs of their countries against Pakistan and Middle Eastern countries. India and Israel which want to prolong the stay of the US-led NATO troops in Afghanistan which have become the center of covert activities, are manipulating their dual policy, particularly of America against Pakistan, China and Iran. Terrorists of ISIS and TTP which are strategic assets of the CIA have claimed responsibility for several terror attacks inside Pakistan, including at Charsadda’s university of Pakistan and recent ones in Afghanistan. In these adverse circumstances, especially, American strategy to boost up the defence of India to counterbalance China will fail, as instability in the region will give a blow to the US interests.

On February 2, 2016, US Secretary of Defence Ash Carter announced the US plans to increase significantly its military presence in Europe to (Eastern Europe), saying that it would lead to a quadrupling of funding to 3.4 billion US dollars in 2017 for the US force posture in Europe, and would be a timely and significant contribution to NATO’s collective defence, and security of Europe.

On the other side, while describing financial problems like sharp decline in stock prices, less available credit etc., the US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen made clear in congressional testimony on February 10, 2016 by stating, “The United States have recently become less supportive of growth...she sees an economy that faces increased risk.”

It is of particular attention that there is a co-relationship of the US internal and external policies. In this respect, on January 12, 2016, John W. Whitehead wrote in The Huffington Post, “Only 1 in 5 Americans trust the government...the majority of the people are not quite ready to ditch the American experiment in liberty. Indeed, Americans may not approve the jobs being done by their elected leaders, they are working themselves into a frenzy over the upcoming presidential election, with contributions to the various candidates nearing $ 500 million...the government has shown itself to be corrupt, abusive, hostile to citizens who disagree, as Barack Obama’s tenure in the White House shows...no matter how much hope and change were promised, what we’ve ended up with something worse: an invasive, authoritarian surveillance state armed and ready to eliminate any opposition. The state of our nation has become more bureaucratic, more debt-ridden, more violent, more militarized, more fascist, more lawless, more invasive, more corrupt, more untrustworthy, more mired in war, and more unresponsive to the wishes and needs of the electorate...the government’s arsenal is growing. While the Obama administration is working to limit the public’s access to guns by pushing for greater gun control, it’s doing little to scale back on the federal government’s growing of firepower and militarized equipment. The national debt is growing. In fact, it’s almost doubled during Obama’s time in office to nearly $20 trillion.”

He elaborated, “Meanwhile, almost half of Americans are struggling to save for emergencies and retirement, 43% can't afford to go more than one month without a paycheck, and 24% have less than $250 in their bank accounts preceding payday...over half a million in the U.S. are homeless and half of them are elderly, the American police state’s payroll is expanding. The prison population is growing at an alarming rate...the nation’s infrastructure...railroads, water pipelines, ports, dams, bridges, airports and roads...is rapidly deteriorating...the expense of those endless wars in Afghanistan and Iraq will cost taxpayers$ 4 trillion to $ 6 trillion.”

Nevertheless, the cost of these long-term military engagements purely in terms of dollar will accelerate multiple problems of Americans, including casualties and frustration in troops and their families, which will further add to the internal problems of America, especially backfiring on the ordinary Americans.

It is notable that the US is homeland of various communities, divided on ethnic, religious and linguistic lines, having affiliations with their own groups. In this regard, in his book, “Who Are We? The Challenges to America’s National Identity,” Samuel Huntington opines, America was founded by British settlers who brought with them a distinct culture...the English language, Protestant values, individualism, religious commitment...the waves of immigrants later came to the United States gradually accepted these values and assimilated into America's Anglo-Protestant culture. More recently, however, our national identity has been eroded by the problems of assimilating massive immigration from Latin America, especially Mexico might lead to the bifurcation of the United States.”

Returning to our earlier discussion, the President Gorbachev had called Afghanistan a “bleeding wound” which culminated into collapse of the former Russia. In the same sense, global war on terror is likely to prove “bleeding wound” for the US which is moving on the Soviet Union’s tract of disintegration.  

Sajjad Shaukat writes on international affairs and is author of the book: US vs Islamic Militants, Invisible Balance of Power: Dangerous Shift in International Relations

Email: sajjad_logic_pak@hotmail.com

Courtesy Veterans Today


India’s Rock ’N’ Roll Approach To Guarding Its Nuclear Sites


By Adrian Levy And R.

On October 8, 2014, Head Constable Vijay Singh awoke before dawn in Kalpakkam, India, and scurried across the ocher gravel outside the constabulary barracks at the Madras Atomic Power Station, “looking like the monsoon was about to break,” as a grounds sweeper later recalled.
Singh was one of 620 paramilitary officers in the country’s Central Industrial Security Force assigned to protect the facility’s nuclear-related buildings and materials. But he did not have his usual tasks in mind that morning.
By 4:40 a.m., the 44-year-old officer reached the armory, where he signed out a 9 mm submachine gun and 60 rounds of ammunition in two magazines. Singh loaded one clip into his weapon, pocketed the other and entered the portico of a cream and red, three-story residential complex.
He climbed up one flight to the room where a senior colleague, Mohan Singh, dozed and abruptly opened fire at him in a controlled burst, to conserve rounds, just as he had been trained.
Then he jogged downstairs, where he shot dead two more men and seriously injured another two. With 10 rounds left in his magazine, and an unused 30-round clip in his pocket, he prowled unimpeded across the gravel, with no alert called.
A bystander shouted out to him, and suddenly Singh halted and dropped to his knees, an eyewitness recalled later. He was finally surrounded and led away, glassy-eyed, “as docile as anything, a neat guy, his hair still perfectly parted,” the witness said.
The episode was a fresh example of what officials here and outside India depict as serious shortcomings in the country’s nuclear guard force, tasked with defending one of the world’s largest stockpiles of fissile material and nuclear explosives.
An estimated 90 to 110 Indian nuclear bombs are stored in six or so government-run sites patrolled by the same security force, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, an independent think tank, and Indian officials.
Within the next two decades, as many as 57 reactors could also be operating under the force’s protection, as well as four plants where spent nuclear fuel is dissolved in chemicals to separate out plutonium to make new fuel or be used in nuclear bombs.
The sites are spread out over vast distances: from the stony foothills of the Himalayas in the north down to the red earth of the tropical south. Shuttling hundreds of miles in between will be occasional convoys of lightly protected trucks laden with explosive and fissile materials—including plutonium and enriched uranium—that could be used in civilian and military reactors or to spark a nuclear blast.
As a result, the Kalpakkam shooting alarmed Indian and Western officials who question whether this country, which is surrounded by unstable neighbors and has a history of civil tumult, has taken adequate precautions to safeguard its sensitive facilities and keep the building blocks of a devastating nuclear bomb from being stolen by insiders with grievances, ill motives or, in the worst case, connections to terrorists.
Although experts say they regard the issue as urgent, Washington is not pressing India for quick reforms. The Obama administration is instead trying to avoid any dispute that might interrupt a planned expansion of U.S. military sales to New Delhi, several senior U.S. officials said in interviews.
The experts’ concerns are based in part on a series of documented nuclear security lapses in the past two decades, in addition to the shooting:
·         Several kilograms of what authorities described as semiprocessed uranium were stolen by a criminal gang, allegedly with Pakistani links, from a state mine in Meghalya, in northeastern India, in 1994. Four years later, a federal politician was arrested near the West Bengal border with 100 kilograms of uranium from India’s Jadugoda mining complex that he was allegedly attempting to sell to Pakistani sympathizers associated with the same gang. A police dossier seen by the Center for Public Integrity (CPI) states that 10 more people connected with smuggling were arrested two years after this, in operations that recovered 57 pounds of stolen uranium.
·         Then, in 2003, members of a jihad group, Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen, were caught in a village on the Bangladesh border with 225 grams of milled uranium—allegedly purchased illicitly from a mining employee—that they said they intended to wrap around explosives. The Indian authorities initially claimed it was from Kazakhstan but later concluded it was more likely from a uranium mining complex in Jadugoda, in eastern India.
·         In 2008, another criminal gang was caught attempting to smuggle low-grade uranium, capable of being used in a primitive radiation-dispersal device, from one of India’s state-owned mines across the border to Nepal. The same year, another group was caught moving an illicit stock of uranium over the border to Bangladesh, the gang having been assisted by the son of an employee at India’s Atomic Minerals Division, which supervises uranium mining and processing.
·         In 2009, a nuclear reactor employee in southwest India deliberately poisoned dozens of his colleagues with a radioactive isotope, taking advantage of numerous gaps in plant security, according to an internal government report seen by the CPI.
·         And in 2013, leftist guerillas in northeast India illegally obtained uranium ore from a government-run milling complex in northeast India and strapped it to high explosives to make a crude bomb before being caught by police, according to an inspector involved in the case.
The paramilitary Central Industrial Security Force (CISF), which has a total of 95,000 personnel under civilian rather than military control and a $785 million budget, is supposed to keep all these nuclear materials from leaking from India’s plants. But it is short-staffed, ill-equipped and inadequately trained, according to a confidential draft Home Ministry report about the force’s future, dated November 2013, seen by the CPI.
“Weapons supply is down by 40 percent, and training equipment by more than 45 percent,” compared with what officials running the force had sought, the report stated. Its size should be 20 percent larger, it added. “Morale is low as security levels remain high.... There is a danger of the force falling behind in terms of its level of equipment and also competence.”
A former three-star Indian Police Service officer, who ran a large Indian force under the Home Ministry alongside the CISF, said in an interview that the force’s training, weapons and technical equipment lagged well behind comparable security forces elsewhere in the world.
“From passive night goggles that cannot see in low light to outmoded communications equipment that does not work over long distances, they’re as good as blind and dumb,” said the ex-officer. “The monies promised two years ago to overhaul it...mostly failed to materialize,” he claimed.
This critical account roughly matches what the U.S. intelligence community has stated in its annual classified rankings of global nuclear security risks, based on detailed assessments of safeguards for materials that could be used in explosives or “dirty bombs” laced with radiation, according to three current or former senior Obama administration officials.
They said that India’s security practices have repeatedly ranked lower in these assessments than those of Pakistan and Russia, two countries with shortcomings that have provoked better-known Western anxieties.
In all the categories of interest to the U.S. intelligence experts making the rankings—the vetting and monitoring of key security personnel, the tracking of explosives’ quantities and whereabouts, and the use of sensitive detectors at nuclear facilities and their portals—the Indians “have got issues,” a senior official said. (He spoke on condition that he not be named, due to the diplomatic sensitivity of the issue.)
Cautioning that Washington probably does not know everything that India has done to protect its facilities because of its obsessive nuclear secrecy, the official said that according to “what we can see people doing...they should be doing a lot more.”
He added that it is “pretty clear [they] are not as far along as the Pakistanis,” explaining that, as with the Russians, Indians’ confidence in being able to manage security challenges by themselves has repeatedly closed them off to foreign advice not only about the gravity of the threats they face but also about how to deal with them.
When U.S. officials made their first visit to the restricted Bhabha Atomic Research Center (BARC) in Mumbai, a complex where India makes plutonium for its nuclear weapons, their observations about its security practices were not reassuring. “Security at the site was moderate,” a cable from November 2008, approved by embassy Chargé d’Affaires Stephen White, told officials in Washington.
Identification checks at the front gate were “quick but not thorough,” and visitor badges lacked photographs, meaning they were easy to replicate or pass around. A security unit at the center’s main gate appeared to be armed with shotguns or semi-automatic Russian-style rifles, the cable noted, but as the U.S. delegation moved toward the Dhruva reactor, where the nuclear explosive material is actually produced, there were no “visible external security systems.”
White’s cable noted that a secondary building where engineering equipment was stored also had “very little security.” While there was a sentry post at a nuclear Waste Immobilization Plant that processes radioactive water, no guards were present, and visitors’ bags were not inspected. No security cameras were seen inside, White added. The cable was disclosed by WikiLeaks in 2011.
A U.S. nuclear safety official, also on the visit, who still works in the field and was not authorized to discuss it told the CPI in an interview that “laborers wandered in and out of the complex, and none of them wore identification.” He said that “the setup was extraordinarily low-key, considering the sensitivity,” explaining that guards could not see camera footage from other locations. There is little evidence that conditions have changed much since then, officials say.
U.S. and Indian officials also have privately expressed worry about the security surrounding India’s movement of sensitive nuclear materials and weaponry.
For example, an industrialist who provides regular private advice to the current prime minister about domestic and foreign strategic issues said in an interview that due to India’s poor roads and rail links, “our nuclear sector is especially vulnerable. How can we safely transport anything, when we cannot say for certain that it will get to where it should, when it should.”
The adviser said that as a result, fissile materials in India have been moved around in unmarked trucks that “look like milk tankers,” without obvious armed escorts. He called this “urban camouflage,” meant to avoid the clamor that would ensue if a security convoy attempted to navigate traffic-choked roads like the one leading from a nuclear fuel fabrication plant in Hyderabad, in south-central India, to a test center for India’s nuclear submarines on the coast at Visakhapatnam. An armed convoy, he said, might need 14 hours to traverse that 400-mile distance.
Experts say the movement of the vehicles is tracked by special devices and communications. But two recently retired scientists from BARC echoed the adviser’s concern in interviews.
“Using civilian transport is a case of making the best of the worst. Far better not to be noticed at all, if you cannot control the environment you’re traveling in,” one said. Western officials have said that Pakistan uses similar unmarked convoys to move its nuclear materials, without obvious protections.
Official inquiries into the Mumbai attack in 2008, where 10 Pakistani gunmen laid siege to the city after arriving at night by boat, showed that nuclear installations close to the city were staked out as potential targets before the terrorists settled upon a Jewish center, a railway station and two five-star hotels.
But to date, most of the troubling incidents at nuclear facilities in India have involved insiders, making the presence of aberrant employees the most tangible threat and the focus of intensive government efforts, according to a presentation made by Indian experts at a U.S. National Academy of Sciences workshop on nuclear security in Bangalore in 2012.
They said that CISF forces assigned to protect India’s nuclear materials get extra training and are rotated regularly among such sites, possibly to deter corruption. Ranajit Kumar, the head of the Bhabha center’s physical protection system section, told the workshop that anyone who takes a new assignment on any classified project is supposed to undergo a new background check.
But an internal government report about the shooting in Kalpakkam, drafted by officials in the Home Ministry and dated December 2014, warned that many warning signs about Vijay Singh, the perpetrator, were ignored.
It said that despite having an explosive temper and telling a doctor he was suffering from stress and exhaustion—problems that forced his withdrawal from weapons duties—Singh was promoted to the rank of head constable due to staff shortages and sent to Kalpakkam from another nuclear installation without any psychological assessment or records recounting his problematic behavior.
At his new posting, he was given access to a submachine gun even though colleagues considered him unwell, as they told investigators later. He complained of being picked on by another head constable, and as the Diwali festival approached in October, he asked for leave to visit his family. He was refused and instead ordered to serve overtime, due to a public call by Al-Qaeda’s leader to “raise the flag of jihad” across South Asia by targeting sensitive sites in India.
When the CISF officer’s final bid for leave was turned down, he told a colleague that “he would burst like a firecracker,” a colleague told police, in a witness statement seen by the CPI. One day later, he did.
Similar lapses had occurred seven years earlier when an employee at the Kaiga nuclear reactor deliberately poisoned several others, subjecting them to a radiation dose 150 times that in a chest X-ray.
A report completed in December 2009 by the plant’s operator, seen by the CPI, pointed to failures in technical monitoring as well as a “human reliability program” that was “ineffective if not misconceived” by the plant operator. Security cameras were not fixed on the key areas of the installation, and some were immobile and incapable of operating in the dark. It said that the contamination was “an act of deliberate sabotage,” and that the perpetrator had eluded detection and capture due to numerous security lapses.
Asked about these matters by the CPI, India’s Atomic Energy Commission declined to reply, following its usual habit of rebuffing inquiries about sensitive, nuclear-related matters. The Atomic Energy Regulatory Board initially pledged to offer responses but then declined, as did the Home Ministry, which oversees the CISF.
Since November 30, 2001, when the CIA began investigating rumors that Al-Qaeda was trying to obtain nuclear materials or finished weapons to be used against the West, the U.S. government has campaigned around the globe—sometimes unsuccessfully—for heightened vigilance in India and other countries with substantial stockpiles of explosive materials.
According to the International Panel on Fissile Materials, an independent nonprofit, India’s stockpile of about 2.4 metric tons of highly enriched (weapons-usable) uranium puts it at fifth place among all nations, and its stock of approximately 0.54 metric tons of separated (weapons-usable) plutonium puts it at ninth place. But its security practices put it even higher on the list of Western anxieties.
For example, the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), a nonprofit in Washington, reported last year that India’s nuclear security practices ranked 23rd among 25 countries that possess at least a bomb’s worth of fissile materials. Only Iran and North Korea fared worse in the analysis, which noted that India’s stockpiles are growing and said the country’s nuclear regulator lacked independence from political interference and adequate authority.
It said the risks stemmed in part from India’s culture of widespread corruption—which helped force the nation’s ruling Congress Party from power in May 2014—as well as its general political instability. “Weaknesses are particularly apparent in the areas of transport security, material control, and accounting and measures to protect against the insider threat, such as personnel vetting and mandatory reporting of suspicious behavior,” the group’s report stated.
But India has rebuffed repeated offers of U.S. help. Gary Samore, President Barack Obama’s coordinator for arms control and weapons of mass destruction from 2009 to 2013, said that at preparatory meetings for international summits on nuclear security in 2010 and 2012, “we kept offering to create a joint security project [with India] consisting of assistance of any and every kind. And every time they would say, to my face, that this was a wonderful idea and they should grasp the opportunity. And then, when they returned to India, we would never hear about it again.”
India also refused to collaborate with the NTI project by sharing or confirming information about its practices, unlike 17 of the other 24 countries in the study. India responded ferociously to its conclusions, according to a researcher connected to the project, who was not sanctioned to talk about it. Officials at the Indian Atomic Energy Commission verbally attacked Ted Turner and Sam Nunn, the NTI’s founders, in conversations with Indian journalists, the researcher said.
In countries such as India that are resistant to hearing direct U.S. advice, the Obama administration has tried what an official referred to as a “work-around”—the creation of training centers around the globe where Western experts working in collaboration with the International Atomic Energy Agency can encourage better safeguards. Twenty-three such centers, deliberately named Nuclear Security Centers of Excellence in a bid to get local buy-in, have been created so far.
The Indians “are happy to be in a place to have a conversation about nuclear security that is not judgmental,” a senior Energy Department official said, explaining the concept behind placing such a center in India. But internal U.S. government cables asserted several years ago that while India initially seemed to embrace the idea, it eventually rejected it, to Washington’s surprise.
In a February 22, 2010, cable disclosed later by WikiLeaks, then-U.S. Ambassador Timothy Roemer said that instead of focusing on nuclear security, India finally decided to set up “a research and development center dedicated to the world-wide deployment of [nuclear reactor] technologies” that the country likes but experts in Washington consider dangerous, on the grounds that they could contribute to the use and spread of nuclear-explosive materials.
The center “would be an Indian government body, staffed by the [Department of Atomic Energy], whose primary focus was research and development” on new reactors, Roemer wrote. This approach “did not fully meet the U.S. vision,” he added.
India subsequently renamed the facility its Global Centre for Nuclear Energy Partnership, and it began limited operations last year with closed workshops on the physical protection of nuclear materials and facilities scheduled alongside nuclear advocacy seminars titled “Splitting Atoms for Prosperity” and “Atoms for Progress.”
Despite the celebration of close U.S.-Indian ties during Obama’s visit to Delhi in January, “there is still no deep technical relationship” between the two countries on nuclear security issues, a White House official conceded in a recent interview, speaking on condition of anonymity. “We only hope that this will slowly change.”
At the moment, India is seeking three favors from Washington: It wants U.S. help to gain membership in the Missile Technology Control Regime, an international forum meant to limit the spread of nuclear-tipped missiles, which would give it access to certain otherwise restricted foreign space-launch technologies. And it wants to join the Nuclear Suppliers Group, composed of nations that agree to respect nonproliferation rules when they trade in nuclear-related technologies. Both ambitions reflect India’s desire to be accorded the status of a major world power, U.S. experts say.
It also wants to acquire U.S. defense technologies by co-producing weapons systems in India with key Pentagon contractors—an issue discussed between Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter and Indian Defense Minister Manohar Parrikar during the minister’s weeklong visit to Washington this past December.
But the Obama administration decided not to use these issues as leverage to force better security measures for nuclear explosives, the senior U.S. official said, because of its judgment that doing so would only prompt India to walk away.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, a former senior U.S. nonproliferation official said this was a mistake. Washington, he said, “has allowed itself to be put into the position of not wanting to displease India for fear of putting things off-track” in its new, warming relationship, and it has wrongly “allowed the Indians to wall off things they are not interested in talking about” while its ties to the United States grow.
An official in Britain’s Foreign Office, who also spoke on condition of anonymity, expressed a more jaundiced view of this reluctance to press Delhi harder.
“Nothing can be allowed to get in the way of investment in the capacious Indian market,” he said, describing the current American mindset. “India has effectively bought itself breathing space, over a lot of concerning issues, especially nuclear security, by opening itself up for the first time to significant trades with the U.S. and Europe.” The financial gains, he said, are “eye-watering.”
According to the U.S. Commerce Department, trade with India grew from $19 billion in 2000 to more than $100 billion in 2014. U.S. exports exceeded $38 billion—including substantial new U.S. arms shipments—supporting 181,000 U.S. jobs. Indian direct investment in the United States totaled $7.8 billion, while U.S. investments reached $28 billion.
Washington, the British official explained, does not wish to provoke a spat over nuclear security simply because doing so could threaten this lucrative trade, which benefits many U.S. companies.
R. Jeffrey Smith reported from Washington, D.C., and California. Adrian Levy is an investigative reporter and filmmaker. His most recent books are The Meadow, about a 1995 terrorist kidnapping of Westerners in Kashmir, and The Siege: The Attack on the Taj, about the 2008 terrorist attacks in Mumbai. He reported from India and the United Kingdom.